Accelerating regional weather forecasting by super-resolution and data-driven methods

Abstract

At present, computationally intensive numerical weather prediction systems based on physics equations are widely used for short-term weather forecasting. In this paper, we investigate the potential of accelerating the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using machine learning techniques. Two main approaches are considered. First, we assess the viability of complete replacing the numerical weather model with deep learning models, capable of predicting the full range forecast directly from basic initial data. Second, we consider a “super-resolution” technique involving low-resolution WRF computation and a machine learning based downscaling using coarse-grid forecast for conditioning. The process of downscaling is intrinsically an ill-posed problem. In both categories, several prominent and promising machine learning methods are evaluated and compared on real data from a variety of sources. for the Moscow region Namely, in addition to the ground truth WRF forecasts that were utilized for training, we compare the model predictions against ERA5 reanalysis and measurements from local weather stations. We show that deep learning approaches can be successfully applied to accelerate a numerical model and even produce more realistic forecasts in other aspects. As a practical outcome, this study offers empirically validated guidance for the selection and application of deep learning methods to accelerate the computation of detailed short-term atmospheric forecasts tailored to specific needs.